The near future is more predictable than the distant future. Last year, the St. Louis Federal Reserve explored the accuracy of recession forecasts. They found that short-term predictions about whether there would be a recession in the subsequent quarter were fairly accurate. However, projections for economic growth a year ahead were far less accurate. The […]
The best week of the year? After two weeks of slow and jolting market performance, a bounty of positive news calmed investors and lifted stock markets higher last week. “Investors seem to have come to the realization that while the economy may in fact be slowing, the Federal Reserve is going to take action to […]
Markets were gripped by August jitters. Last week, financial markets were volatile. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which is known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, rose to the highest level in four years before cooling down. “While spikes in the VIX often coincide with deep market sell-offs, they can also be short-lived and precede a […]
Stock markets swelled and dropped like waves at the Olympic surfing competition in Tahiti. It is often said that markets hate uncertainty. There was a lot of uncertainty last week, and it showed. “The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index soared 3 [percent] on Wednesday and then retreated almost that much on Thursday, before paring the decline […]
Americans may be witnessing something remarkable. Earlier this year, we had the relatively rare opportunity to view a total solar eclipse – when the moon passes between the sun and the Earth, blocking the sun completely – as it crossed numerous states. Now, we may see the United States’ economy experience a soft landing – […]
The rate cut stars are aligning. For the last year, borrowing costs in the United States have remained relatively high as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) waited for economic data to show that inflation was on track to reach the Fed’s two percent target. Now, we may finally be on the cusp of lower rates. […]
Will deflation continue? In May, Pew Research asked Americans about the biggest problems facing our nation. The top three answers were: Inflation; The ability of Democrats and Republicans to work together; and The affordability of health care. Last week, there was some good news about the first issue. Inflation became deflation as the Consumer Price […]
Despite some volatility, stock markets have been buoyant in 2024. Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI), optimism about inflation, and expectations that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin to lower rates this year have helped global and U.S. stock markets, overall, push higher in 2024. Share prices increased more slowly in the second quarter, […]
Some good news and some volatility. Last week was a mixed bag as investors weighed positive economic news against concerns that stock prices for some chipmakers may not be sustainable. Here are the highlights: Inflation slowed to zero. On Friday, one of the Fed’s favored measures of inflation – the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index […]