Are you feeling optimistic or pessimistic? Consumers are a force to be reckoned with – and we’re all consumers. We buy coats and tweezers, electricity and bread, screens, and fishing poles. We download apps and games and educational materials. As consumers, we are vital to the American economy. In fact, consumer spending accounts for about […]

Is inflation retreating? Last week, we received a lot of information about inflation. Some seemed to support the idea that inflation was sticky, meaning it wasn’t moving lower, while other data suggested inflation was in retreat. Here’s what we learned: Headline inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, suggested inflation was headed in the […]

And we’re off…to a slow start. Last week, investors appeared to suffer from a New Year’s hangover. The culprit was too much optimism. After its December meeting, with inflation easing and the U.S. economy remaining resilient, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated that three rate cuts were possible in 2024. Assuming the Fed drops […]

2023 was a big year for U.S. stocks. The story of 2023 has its roots in 2022, when the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index lost almost 19.5 percent amid rising inflation and aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. As 2022 ended, many on Wall Street predicted further pain in the new year. Economists forecasted a […]

Have rates peaked? Last week, at its final policy meeting for 2023, the United States Federal Reserve indicated that rates may have peaked. After the meeting, Chair Jerome Powell said: “As we approach the end of the year, it is natural to look back on the progress that has been made toward our dual mandate […]

Still exceeding expectations. Last week, the United States Treasury market rallied. Yields fell and bond prices rose as some bond market investors enthusiastically embraced the idea that the Federal Reserve will soon change course. Michael Mackenzie and Rich Miller of Bloomberg explained: “Softening inflation and employment data in the past month have convinced investors that […]

We’re cycling along. It’s easy to forget that economic activity tends to move in cycles. A full cycle, known as the business cycle, typically includes four stages: Contraction occurs when economic growth slows as an economy produces fewer goods and services. Economic contractions often include recessions. As productivity contracts, it can negatively affect the profitability […]

In November, investors were more optimistic than consumers. At the start of November, investors were decidedly bearish. During the week of November 1, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey found that about 50 percent of respondents were pessimistic about the prospects for stocks over the next six months, and about 24 percent were bullish. The current […]

Is it done? (We’re not talking about the turkey.) Last week, investors enthusiastically embraced the idea that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could be done raising rates – and that it might even begin to lower them. As conviction about the possibility of rate cuts increased, stock and bond markets rallied, reported Koh Gui Qing and […]