Still exceeding expectations. Last week, the United States Treasury market rallied. Yields fell and bond prices rose as some bond market investors enthusiastically embraced the idea that the Federal Reserve will soon change course. Michael Mackenzie and Rich Miller of Bloomberg explained: “Softening inflation and employment data in the past month have convinced investors that […]

We’re cycling along. It’s easy to forget that economic activity tends to move in cycles. A full cycle, known as the business cycle, typically includes four stages: Contraction occurs when economic growth slows as an economy produces fewer goods and services. Economic contractions often include recessions. As productivity contracts, it can negatively affect the profitability […]

In November, investors were more optimistic than consumers. At the start of November, investors were decidedly bearish. During the week of November 1, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey found that about 50 percent of respondents were pessimistic about the prospects for stocks over the next six months, and about 24 percent were bullish. The current […]

Is it done? (We’re not talking about the turkey.) Last week, investors enthusiastically embraced the idea that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could be done raising rates – and that it might even begin to lower them. As conviction about the possibility of rate cuts increased, stock and bond markets rallied, reported Koh Gui Qing and […]

Earnings grew in the third quarter. Four times a year, during earnings season, publicly traded companies report how well they performed during the previous quarter. The strength of corporate earnings – also known as bottom-line profits – is one of the economic indicators that investors watch closely. When companies consistently grow earnings, investors feel confident […]

Will there be a year-end rally? Last week, there was a lot of speculation about whether the United States will see a year-end stock market rally. Some say yes, and some say no. For example, at Bank of America, “Chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett broke from his usual bearish view to say technicals no longer […]

The Mark Twain Effect? Historically, economic theory was based on the idea that financial decisions were grounded in rational thought. In recent years, behavioral economists have recognized that people don’t always behave rationally. In fact, research has found that investors like shortcuts that help simplify decision-making. While rules of thumb can be helpful, it’s important […]

Stay calm and consider the big picture. Today, investors have a myriad of worries that are creating tremendous uncertainty. A September Investopedia survey found investors are concerned about how their investments may be affected by: Inflation (59 percent), The upcoming election (52 percent), A possible recession, (51 percent) Higher interest rates, (51 percent) S.-China tension, […]

Markets were resilient. Last week, investors had a lot to process – geopolitics, inflation, consumer sentiment, the possibility of government shutdown – and markets were volatile. Toward the end of the week, some investors were reassured when earnings season kicked off with reports showing major banks posted stronger-than-expected profits during the third quarter. Here’s a […]