The Markets Everyone makes mistakes. Some people learn from them. In GMO’s March 2016 white paper, James Montier and Philip Pilkington continued to explore the Federal Reserve’s influence on the stock market. It was a process they’d begun in 2015 as they sought “…to understand why our forecast for the S&P 500 had been too […]
The Markets A mobile trivia game maker recently assessed the playing habits of Americans and identified the most popular topics by state. As it turns out, Alabamians like college football questions, Alaskans like queries about U.S. states, Rhode Island natives prefer inquiries about the human body, and Wisconsinites love their Green Bay Packers. We think […]
When is a door not a door? The answer, of course, is: When it’s ajar. Investors and analysts were trying to find the answer to a different riddle last week: When are strong retail sales not strong retail sales? The answer is: When the retailers are department stores. Consumers spent more in April than they […]
The Markets Reading economic portents can be tricky. For example, do signs that economic growth is slowing – like last week’s employment report, which was anemic relative to consensus forecasts, and first quarter’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth – mean the economy is headed for trouble? Or, does it mean the economy is going to […]
The Markets “Which would you prefer to be: a medieval monarch or a modern office-worker?” If you immediately answered medieval monarch, take a moment to ponder life without “…modern dentistry, antibiotics, air travel, smartphones, and YouTube.” Last week, The Economist used this example to illustrate the challenges of accurately measuring living standards over time. […]
U.S. stock markets finished last week in heady territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 18,003. Its all-time closing high is 18,312. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was less than 1 percent below its intraday trading record, which was set last year. Despite strong stock market performance, optimism was in short supply. Barron’s […]
Isn’t it remarkable that China’s growth is so consistent? A columnist from The Washington Post once opined that China “produces an astonishing number of astonishing numbers.” Last week’s GDP announcement, which helped push markets higher, may fall into that category. China’s official statistics agency reported the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.7 percent […]
We all learned a thing or two about Panama last week. The country is not the home of the Panama hat, which is made in Ecuador. However, it is the only place in the world where you can watch the sun rise on the Pacific Ocean and set on the Atlantic Ocean. It’s also home […]
It’s like déjà vu all over again! This wasn’t the first quarter, or even the first year, that bond markets have not performed in the way Wall Street strategists have expected. During 2014, bond yields were expected to rise. They did not. During 2015, bonds were predicted to finish the year yielding about 2.8 percent […]