It’s like déjà vu all over again! This wasn’t the first quarter, or even the first year, that bond markets have not performed in the way Wall Street strategists have expected. During 2014, bond yields were expected to rise. They did not. During 2015, bonds were predicted to finish the year yielding about 2.8 percent […]
Are corporations in the United States struggling? In its cover article last week, The Economist (a British publication), suggested there is not enough competition among American companies. It pointed out: “Aggregate domestic profits are at near-record levels relative to GDP… High profits might be a sign of brilliant innovations or wise long-term investments were it […]
There is ongoing debate about whether markets behave in rational ways. The efficient market hypothesis suggests it’s impossible to outperform the stock market because current share prices reflect all relevant information. In other words, stocks should always trade at fair value and it should be impossible to invest in a stock that is overpriced or […]
Stim-u-late mar-kets! Come on! It’s monetary easing.* The European Central Bank (ECB) was singing a tune that invigorated financial markets last week. The Wall Street Journal explained: “The fresh measures included cuts to all three of the ECB’s main interest rates, €20 billion a month of additional bond purchases atop the ECB’s current €60 […]
It wasn’t as entertaining as the Fantastic Four, The Magnificent Seven, or Ocean’s 11 but, last week, we had an opportunity to watch the Group of 20 (G20). The G20 stars finance ministers and central bankers from 19 countries and the European Union as well as representatives from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World […]
The Markets And the economic data says… The United States economy is doing pretty well. So well that a March rate hike by the Federal Reserve is not entirely out of the question. Barron’s described the situation like this: “Squawking pessimism can't drown out what is a very respectable start to 2016. Economic data so […]
Are markets suffering from excessive worry? Last week, markets headed south because investors were concerned about the possibility of negative interest rates in the United States – even though the U.S. Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary policy (i.e., they’ve been raising interest rates). The worries appear to have taken root after the House Financial […]
There was bad news and good news in last Friday’s unemployment report. In the negative column, fewer jobs were created in the United States than economists had predicted, and January’s jobs gains were not as strong as December’s had been. In addition, the December jobs increase was revised downward from 292,000 to 252,000, according to […]
How low can you go? The Bank of Japan (BOJ) dove into the negative interest rate rabbit hole last week when it dropped its benchmark interest rate to minus 0.1 percent. If you’ve been following Japan’s story, then you know the country has been struggling with deflation for almost two decades. The BOJ’s goal is […]